Overall government economists expect job growth for radiologists, to be faster than the average for all careers through 2016.

The growing and aging population means that more people will need medical services. However, changes in health care coverage and advances in technology could potentially limit some demand and Radiology jobs.

Although it is hard to generate much sympathy for highly paid Radiologists their world may be changing. The recession and health care reform are already having an impact.  U.S. hospitals are already dealing with more patients without insurance or the ability to pay their hospital bills. Charitable contributions have fallen dramatically and bad debt has risen.

The ability to measure exact needs in healthcare is difficult at best but many think the United States is in the midst of a physician shortage that is expected to intensify as baby boomers age and the need for health care grows. There are so many factors impacting this problem but it seems clear the future demand will increase while the supply may not.  The only real question is how much money will be available to finance healthcare in the future. Already healthcare has taken an increasing and some say crippling share of our economy.  Add to this the shrinking economy, the aging population and the impending health care reform and you have multiple challenges going forward.

There is currently a shortage of diagnostic radiologists in the United States. The American College of Radiology’s (ACR) survey of hiring in 1998 measured the shortage at 600 but others see technology easing the shortage as radiologists are able to perform more procedures more efficiently.

It is estimated that as many as one-third of today’s practicing physicians will retire by 2020. There are about 30,000 practicing radiologists in the US.

Economy and Aging Population

The US is aging. Between 2010 and 2035, all age groups 70 and above will increase over 95%. This means there will be a greater demand for all health care services.

The recession and massive job loss across the country has had a direct impact on the revenue stream impacting even Interventional Radiology jobs. When people lose their job, they also lose their health care benefits and so access to health care. Makers of high-tech imaging equipment may take a big hit should government insurance payments for such tests be reduced. Lower reimbursements may make hospitals reconsider buying the $1 million imaging machines.

The recent stock market collapse has had a major impact on older physicians decisions. Some Radiologists are postponing retirement because of the economy’s impact on their retirement savings. But even a three- to five-year delay won’t address the impending loss of experienced physicians. This postponement has resulted in fewer jobs being offered and graduating residents not finding as many opportunities as before. Residents rather than committing themselves to less desirable jobs now, are opting for locum tenens jobs and waiting before committing to full time employment. So for the short term, it appears there are fewer good jobs available.

Health Insurance Reform

Another uncertainty is the outcome of national health reform. If the health care reform actually works in increasing the enrollment into health care insurance then the long term the aging population and these increased numbers should push demand for services and therefore cost higher. However, no one yet knows what will happen to reimbursement rates from Medicare. Already there has been some lowering of rates they pay in Radiology which has directly impacted that specialty. The question is will there be more rates cut to affect all specialties.

Because of these and other factors many physician practices are holding off making any decisions until they have a better idea of how the health reform will impact these reimbursements.